June 14, 2025 | Sustainability |
The study, conducted by Mersin University in Türkiye, evaluated the potential of avocado and pitaya cultivation under present and future climate scenarios in the Mediterranean sub-tropical region of Mersin. Using a combination of climate and soil data, researchers initially analyzed 14 environmental parameters, narrowing them down to 12 through correlation analysis. These parameters were used to model current and projected crop suitability using the MaxEnt model.
Future projections were based on three global climate models—HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and GFDL-ESM4—under two emissions scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate) and SSP5-8.5 (high). For avocado, the area classified as highly suitable (“S1” class) is projected to increase slightly under both scenarios, with gains ranging from 0.77% to 4.02%. For pitaya, changes in suitability varied by model, with modest increases or decreases depending on the scenario and model used.
The study highlights the potential for continued avocado and pitaya cultivation despite projected climate challenges. While climate change poses risks to agricultural systems in the region, the results suggest that careful planning and adaptation strategies could sustain or even enhance the cultivation of these crops under future conditions.
