June 14, 2025 | Sustainability |
Avocado and pitaya cultivation in Mersin—a Mediterranean subtropical region—under both current and future climate scenarios was the focus of a study carried out by Mersin University, Türkiye. The research aimed to assess how climate change could influence the future distribution and suitability of these crops, providing insights for sustainable agricultural planning.
Using detailed climate and soil data, 14 environmental parameters were initially considered, later refined to 12 after correlation analysis. The MaxEnt model was applied to predict current and future habitat suitability under two climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) based on three global climate models: HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and GFDL-ESM4. Results showed slight increases in highly suitable (“S1”) areas for avocado under moderate emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5), while under more extreme conditions (SSP5-8.5), gains were limited or even declined depending on the model. For pitaya, the projections indicated both moderate expansion and contraction of suitable zones, varying by climate model.
Overall, the findings suggest that although climate change may reduce cultivation potential in some regions, adaptive management and the selection of tolerant varieties could maintain agricultural productivity. The study provides a model-based foundation for long-term crop planning and sustainable fruit production in Mediterranean environments.
