January 14, 2026 | PLOS One |
To assess the impact of climate change on avocado (Persea americana Mill.) cultivation in India, researchers from the ICAR–Indian Institute of Horticultural Research conducted a study examining both present and future suitability. Avocado is a nutrient-rich tropical fruit that is gaining importance in India due to increasing domestic demand and export opportunities. However, its cultivation is currently limited to a few southern states, and information on its ecological requirements across diverse agro-climatic regions remains limited.
The researchers applied an ensemble species distribution modelling (ESDM) approach that integrated eight machine learning algorithms to evaluate the environmental factors influencing avocado distribution. The analysis used 35 spatially filtered occurrence records and multiple environmental predictors. The models showed strong predictive performance, with Random Forest and Maxent providing the most accurate results. Key factors influencing avocado suitability included isothermality, minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation during the coldest quarter, urbanization, and forest cover.
Current suitability hotspots were identified mainly in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Future projections under moderate emission scenarios suggested a potential expansion of suitable areas toward higher elevations in the Western Ghats, northeastern hills, and parts of eastern India. In contrast, the high-emission scenario indicated increased fragmentation and instability of suitable habitats. The study provides geospatial insights to support climate-resilient planning and sustainable expansion of avocado cultivation in India.
