July 07, 2026 | Applied Fruit Science | Mohibul Hossen
This study conducted by Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Bangladesh examined long-term trends in guava (Psidium guajava L.) production and assessed its potential contribution to agricultural development and the national economy. Guava is an important tropical fruit in Bangladesh with nutritional and economic value, but its production is influenced by regional differences, climate variability, and postharvest constraints. Understanding production patterns is important for future planning and policy development.
The researchers analyzed division-level production data from 2010–2011 to 2023–2024 obtained from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and used an ARIMA (0,1,0) model to forecast future production trends. The analysis showed that national guava production increased steadily over the study period despite fluctuations in cultivated area, indicating improvements in productivity. Chittagong was the leading production region, followed by Rajshahi and Dhaka, while Sylhet recorded the lowest production levels. The forecasting model showed relatively strong performance for Chittagong and Rajshahi and acceptable prediction accuracy across the remaining regions.
Although challenges such as climate variability, limited value chain development, and postharvest losses continue to affect the sector, the study identified considerable potential for expanding guava production. The findings suggest that improved varieties, stronger market infrastructure, and supportive agricultural policies could further enhance the contribution of guava to sustainable agricultural development and Bangladesh's economy.
