October 11, 2023 | Climate |
In the intricate tapestry of Thailand's agriculture, deeply intertwined with climatic intricacies, the Asian Institute of Technology conducted a significant study focusing on Chiang Mai province. This research delves into the nuanced trends of climate variability, exploring their intricate correlation with crop yields and the multifaceted interplay of social and farm factors that mold farm net income. Analyzing a time series of climate data spanning from 2002 to 2020, employing methodologies like the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimation, the study unravels evolving trends in temperature and rainfall. The Pearson correlation untangles the association between climate variability and cultivated crop yields, while multiple linear regression dissects the factors influencing farm net income. Notably, despite unaltered trends in total annual rainfall, a rising temperature over time bears consequences — negatively impacting longan yield yet positively influencing maize, with no significant effect on rice yield. Amidst declining trends in some crop yields, the study reveals that farm net income remains resilient, tethered to cumulative output and geographical nuances. This work underscores the imperative integration of climate data, forecasting models, agronomic and socio-economic considerations, and crop suitability assessments into adaptive policies for specific regions.