DFNet

May 14, 2024 | Regional Environmental Change |

The Instituto de Ecología and Universidad Veracruzana in Mexico focused on modeling the potential distribution of ten species of wild edible fruits from the state of Veracruz under present and future climate scenarios. These fruits are valuable genetic and economic resources, playing a crucial role in local livelihoods and offering resilience against climate change and food insecurity. The researchers utilized the MaxLike R library and bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database, analyzing projections under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070 using three general circulation models.

The study found that Pithecellobium dulce is the only species likely to expand its potential distribution in the future. In contrast, the other species, including economically significant ones like Pouteria sapota and Pimenta dioica, are projected to lose over 40% of their current distribution areas, with reductions of up to 82% and 85%, respectively. The results indicate that municipalities with lower levels of marginalization could still support the establishment of multiple species, making these fruits important for food security and climate change adaptation. The findings emphasize the need for conservation strategies targeting these species to mitigate the impacts of climate change and marginalization.

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