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The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 analyzes medium-term global agricultural market trends, emphasizing critical challenges like climate change, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Global agricultural production is projected to grow by 1.3% annually, driven by innovation and sustainable practices, reducing GHG emissions intensity. However, direct agricultural emissions are expected to rise by 5%. Halving food loss and waste could cut emissions by 4% and reduce undernourishment by 153 million by 2030.
Emerging economies, especially India and Southeast Asia, will shape future demand, with India surpassing China as the key market influencer. Despite growing demand in low-income countries, calorie intake growth is limited to 4%, delaying progress toward SDG2. Income constraints hinder dietary diversification, sustaining reliance on staples and widening productivity gaps in low- and middle-income countries, increasing import dependence.
Addressing resource constraints, GHG emissions, deforestation, and biodiversity loss is vital to building sustainable food systems. Trade remains essential, with 20% of global calories traded, but risks from protectionism persist. While international commodity prices may decline, retail prices are likely to remain high due to domestic factors. Policymakers must focus on international cooperation, innovation, and inclusive strategies to ensure food security, sustainability, and resilience.
Projected evolution for 2024-2033
- Consumption: Low- and middle-income economies drive consumption growth, with rising calorie intake, slow dietary diversification, increasing protein consumption, high food expenditure in poor countries, and expanded feed and biofuel use.
- Production: Agricultural production growth is supported by yield improvements, limited land expansion, dairy-focused livestock growth, slower fish production, reduced emissions intensity, and challenges posed by climate change.
- Food Loss and Waste: Halving food loss and waste is essential for sustainable food systems, as scenario analyses reveal their significant implications for global food security and efficiency.
- Trade: Agricultural trade growth will slow, stabilizing exports and increasing shipments between regions, highlighting trade’s vital role in resilience and supply-demand balancing.
- Prices: After peaking in 2022, prices will return to long-term trends, with simulations indicating potential variations in future price trajectories.
Regional outlook
- Developed and East Asia: China's slowing demand and nutritional stability, coupled with sustainable productivity, influence a diverse trade profile of net importers and exporters across the region.
- South and Southeast Asia: Robust income and population growth sustain strong demand, with India dominating consumption; productivity is essential as declining exports shift the region towards net imports.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Population-driven food demand and slow dietary diversification increase import dependence, with food security challenged by limited productivity gains and slow regional trade progress.
- Near East and North Africa: Rising import dependence and affordability issues persist, emphasizing productivity-led growth amid severe resource constraints and a growing import bill.
- Europe and Central Asia: Sustainability and conflict risks slow production, with diverging trends in animal-sourced food consumption and Ukraine's trade recovery tied to the war's resolution.
- North America: Productivity-driven crop growth supports global output, with shifting consumer preferences and a diminishing trade surplus shaping the region's agricultural outlook.
- Latin America and the Caribbean: Export-led growth driven by productivity and expansion faces rising risks in a fragmented global trade environment, with evolving but diverse dietary patterns.
