June 7, 2023 | FAO | Source
The FAO and OECD's Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 predicts slower agricultural and food production growth over the next decade due to demographic trends. Global production of crops, livestock products, and fish is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%, down from the previous decade. Total food consumption is expected to rise by 1.3% annually, leading to an increase in the share of agricultural commodities used as food.
The report emphasizes the impact of rising fertilizer prices on food costs, with a 10% increase in fertilizer prices leading to a 2% increase in food costs, disproportionately affecting the poor. It calls for policies to ensure greater efficiency and resilience in the face of inflationary pressures.
While cereals production growth is expected to slow, driven by saturation levels in many countries, global crop production will be driven by yield improvements (79% of growth), cropland expansion (15%), and higher cropping intensity (6%). Meat consumption will increase in middle and lower-income countries, while per capita consumption in high-income countries will decline. Global trade in agricultural commodities is projected to expand at half the previous decade's pace, with slower demand growth from middle-income countries. Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are expected to increase by 7.5% in the next decade, with the livestock sector accounting for 86% of the increase.