Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) | Source | Report |
The report provides a comprehensive forecast of global agricultural and fish markets over the next decade.
- Consumption Growth: Total consumption is projected to rise by 13%, almost entirely in low- and middle-income countries. Rising incomes will increase demand for animal-source foods, though low-income countries will remain far below FAO’s Healthy Diet Basket standard.
- Production Expansion: Global production is expected to increase by 14%, led by middle-income countries. Productivity gains will dominate growth, but cropland and livestock expansion in Africa and South Asia will contribute to higher emissions.
- Emissions Outlook: Despite reduced carbon intensity, direct agricultural GHG emissions are forecast to rise by 6%. Livestock expansion will account for 70% of this increase.
- Trade Dynamics: By 2034, 22% of calories consumed globally will be traded across borders, underscoring the continued need for rules-based multilateral cooperation to ensure food security and resilience.
- Prices and Farmers’ Livelihoods: Real agricultural prices will decline modestly, heightening pressure on smallholders to adopt innovative technologies and improve efficiency.
- Scenario Analysis: Achieving zero hunger while reducing GHG emissions by 7% is possible with a 15% productivity improvement and broad adoption of emission-reduction technologies.
Major Risks and Uncertainties
- Geopolitical Factors: Conflicts, policy shifts, and trade disputes could reshape production, trade flows, and price stability.
- Climate Change: Extreme weather and shifting rainfall patterns threaten yields, with uneven adaptation capacity across regions.
- Animal Disease Outbreaks: Events such as African Swine Fever (ASF) or avian influenza can severely disrupt livestock production and trade.
- Policy Evolution: Ambitious sustainability policies, biofuel mandates, or protectionist measures could alter market dynamics.
- Consumer Preferences: While dietary changes are gradual, growing awareness of health, environment, and animal welfare issues may reshape demand in high-income countries.
- Input Costs: Energy and fertilizer prices are expected to stabilize, but geopolitical disruptions could trigger new volatility.
