Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) | Source | Report |
This FAO report provides a comprehensive global analysis of how agrifood systems are addressed in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Drawing on a systematic review of 167 NDCs representing 194 Parties as of January 2024, the report assesses the current status of agrifood system climate commitments across adaptation, mitigation, and climate finance dimensions. The report finds that food insecurity and loss of ecosystems and biodiversity are the most frequently reported climate-related risks in NDCs, cited by 88% of countries with adaptation components. Between 2007 and 2022, the agriculture sector absorbed one-fourth of disaster impacts across all sectors, with over 65% of drought-related losses occurring in agriculture. By mid-century, 10% of currently suitable agricultural area is projected to become climatically unsuitable under high-emission scenarios, and an additional 80 million people will be at risk of hunger by 2050.
Despite growing ambition, significant gaps remain. Current NDC mitigation targets are highly insufficient, with policies currently in place projected to result in 3.1°C of warming. Countries would need to collectively reduce GHG emissions by 28 to 42% compared to 2019 levels to limit warming to below 2.0°C or 1.5°C, respectively. Agrifood systems generate approximately 30% of global GHG emissions annually, yet many NDCs lack quantified mitigation targets for key subsectors. The report highlights that least developed countries (LDCs) and low-income countries report climate-related risks at higher rates than the global average, particularly for food security (95% in LDCs), livelihoods and poverty (85%), and water security (89%). On climate finance, a substantial gap persists between the finance needs articulated in NDCs and actual flows directed to agrifood systems. The report calls for deep transformation across agrifood systems and an immediate redirection of global capital toward climate finance, emphasizing the need for 3rd-round NDCs in 2025 to significantly raise ambition, action, and support.
