Remote Sensing | March 4, 2023
Forests are crucial in the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems, and Nature-based Solutions (NbS) play a key role in carbon neutrality efforts. Beijing Normal University conducted a study to understand the carbon dynamics of southwestern forests under different climate change scenarios. Using the Forest Ecosystem Carbon Budget Model for China (FORCCHN), they simulated the carbon sink potential of these ecosystems driven by downscaled global climate model data.
The findings reveal that gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net primary productivity (NPP) are projected to increase from 2020 to 2060. Forests will act as carbon sinks, but net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will peak in the 2030s and decline thereafter. The SSP1-2.6 scenario demonstrates higher NEP and greater stability compared to other scenarios. Northwest and central Yunnan regions exhibit significant carbon sequestration potential, with a slight upward trend in NEP in the future.
Temperature has a strong positive correlation with GPP and ER, while precipitation has minimal influence. However, increasing temperatures may negatively impact forest carbon sinks. These findings guide forest management strategies and contribute to sustainable development goals, informing decisions on forest conservation and carbon sequestration.
