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This fourteenth Emissions Gap Report, released ahead of COP28, underscores the accelerating climate crisis. It evaluates the gap between pledged greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the necessary reductions to align with the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The report emphasizes the urgent need for global action to address the escalating climate emergency.
Key Findings
- Temperature Records and GHG Emissions: Not only are temperature records consistently being broken, but global GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) also set new records in 2022.
- Global Emissions Inequality: Emissions are highly unequally distributed among countries, reflecting global patterns of inequality.
- Net-Zero Pledges: While the number of net-zero pledges continues to rise, confidence in their implementation remains low.
- Emissions Gap in 2030: Current unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) imply a 14 GtCO2e gap for a 2°C goal and a 22 GtCO2e gap for the 1.5°C goal. Additional implementation of conditional NDCs reduces these estimates by 3 GtCO2e.
- Action in the Next Decade: Urgent action in this decade is crucial, determining the ambition required in the next round of NDCs for 2035 and the feasibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
- Global Warming Estimates: If current policies persist, global warming is estimated to be limited to 3°C. Fulfilling all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030 lowers this estimate to 2.5°C, with additional fulfillment of all net-zero pledges bringing it to 2°C.
- Economic and Institutional Challenges: Low- and middle-income countries face substantial economic and institutional challenges in low-carbon energy transitions but can also exploit opportunities.
- Reliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR): Delaying stringent global GHG emissions reductions will increase future reliance on CDR to meet the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Policy Recommendations
- Accelerated Mitigation Action: Urgently strengthen mitigation actions to narrow the emissions gap, ensuring more ambitious targets for 2035 in the next round of NDCs.
- Global Collaboration: Encourage high-income countries to accelerate domestic emissions reductions, commit to reaching net-zero at an accelerated pace, and provide financial and technical support to low- and middle-income countries.
- Inclusive Development: Low- and middle-income countries must meet pressing development needs alongside transitioning away from fossil fuels.
- Robust Monitoring: Implement robust monitoring and reporting mechanisms to ensure accurate quantification of emission reductions, providing transparency and accountability.
- Energy Transition Investments: Explore opportunities and overcome challenges associated with energy transitions, promoting sustainable development.