Remote Sensing | March 21, 2023
Climate change has increased the risk of agricultural drought in arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. To adapt, farmers often shift to more drought-tolerant crops or permanently switch back to grassland. Understanding the impact of declining groundwater levels on this decision-making process is crucial. Researchers from New Mexico Tech conducted a study in Union County, New Mexico, to explore how groundwater level decline affects the propensity of cropland switching back to grassland.
The study integrated field-scale groundwater level projections and high-resolution remote sensing data on crop choices. Using a regression analysis framework, they found that as the groundwater level in the Ogallala Aquifer declined, cropland in the area gradually and permanently shifted back to grassland. For every one-standard-deviation decline in groundwater level, there was an average 1.85% increase in the likelihood of switching back to grassland, which is a natural carbon sink.
The findings consider the fact that farmers explore other options before permanently switching back, such as growing more drought-tolerant crops or implementing land idling and rotation. The study concludes by discussing the policy implications for long-term land and water conservation.
This research provides valuable insights into the effects of declining groundwater levels on agricultural practices, helping inform sustainable land and water management policies in drought-prone regions.
